Renewed Pivot Odds
Will Major Resistance Break?
Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings report came in a lot lower than consensus estimates, and that was good news for pivot bros.
But how important are job openings in reality? Quoting the Wall Street Journal might go against my every nature, but they recently published something that makes a lot of sense. This excerpt is from March 20, 2023.
In a survey of more than 1,000 hiring managers last summer, 27% reported having job postings up for more than four months. Among those who said they advertised job postings that they weren’t actively trying to fill, close to half said they kept the ads up to give the impression the company was growing, according to Clarify Capital, a small-business-loan provider behind the study. One-third of the managers who said they advertised jobs they weren’t trying to fill said they kept the listings up to placate overworked employees.
Other reasons for keeping jobs up, the hiring managers said: Stocking a pool of ready applicants if an employee quits, or just in case an “irresistible” candidate applied.
– Te-Ping Chen, WSJ
Job openings are misleading, simply put.
On Wednesday, we learned that ISM Services PMI fell to 51.2 in March from 55.1 in Feb. This reading showed the slowest growth in the services sector in three months and was a much bigger deceleration than expected.
Demand and employment slowed, while capacity and logistics improved and price pressures eased to the lowest since September 2020 (Source).
Once we see both services and manufacturing PMI below 50, that makes a strong recession argument.
The markets will be closed for Good Friday as Nonfarm Payrolls are released.
Technical Analysis Corner
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
The weekly chart definitely tells of caution for bulls until and unless we get price acceptance above the 30k area. Weekly support is seen in the range of 24.3-25.2k, as there had been multiple weekly closes at the lower end and wicks to the upper end of that zone.
Below that we would be looking at 22k area. That’s of course pending bulls not being able to break out or steal liquidity above 30k first.
Bitcoin 4H Chart
The intraday chart is respecting the same zone we mapped out one week ago, with price only briefly exiting above the range on that 29190 wick. It’s very easy for whales to manipulate your emotions here, so give them the benefit of the doubt at the range highs or you’ll likely get trapped.
This is not an area where the average trader should be doing anything other than exercising patience.
S&P500 Daily Chart
We now have a sustained breakout on the S&P500, with the 50 and 200MA’s offering support at 402 and 393. We still have no macro break in structure until 418.31 is taken out, but the intermediate trend remains to the upside.
Nonfarm Payrolls may impact the markets next week as they will be closed today for Good Friday.
Ethereum 3-Day Chart
ETH has now broken above $1789, so I expect it to tap $2030 at some point in the next few days or weeks. It’s pretty straightforward here, just tracking from one swing level to the next.
Continued ETH strength should be positive for altcoins overall.
TOTAL2 3-Day Chart
Speaking of alts, I’m watching the $620B area for a breakout. Price action looks wicky and uncertain here, so it’s a coin flip. We need a decisive breakout with at least a 3-day or weekly close above.
Jay Charles
Editor in Chief, The Trading Tank.
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