Bitcoin Report – 12/2/22
BITCOIN & MARKET UPDATE
Today I want to take a look at the monthly chart, since November has just concluded. There’s a pretty clear level of prior monthly support for BTC near 17.6k, which has now turned to resistance. Closing under those prior lows is pretty significant, and it means bears still hold the upper hand on the high timeframes.
BTC Monthly Chart:
When we get down to the daily chart, this starts to get interesting. In a moment we will compare this to the daily chart on SPY to analyze the relative strength. There have been a few little pumps, but price action remains weak overall.
We’ve got confluence around 18.4k with horizontal and diagonal resistance. That level hasn’t been tested yet, so there’s a chance it may be revisited in the coming days or weeks. There is horizontal support around 15.4k, which if broken down, could result in a quick move down to 13.5-14k.
BTC Daily Chart:
Since the daily close on Oct. 13 the S&P500 has advanced 12%, while BTC has declined by 12%. Clearly the bottom in equities did not coincide with a bottom in crypto, and that is a well-defined warning sign.
On Thursday, the SPY touched its diagonal resistance line around 410. If it continues to advance, that may drag the price of BTC up as well. However, a rejection here puts BTC bulls in a tough spot.
SPY Daily Chart:
On the 4H, BTC is consolidating ahead of today’s jobs report. A successful breakout above 17.2k should lead to a test of 17.5-17.6.
There’s a support level at 16.6 and another at 16.1. All of these levels could easily come into play around the time of the NFP release at 08:30 EST. A close below 16.1 may bring a test or sweep of 15.5.
BTC 4H Chart:
The dollar index is heading lower toward the prior weekly highs. When it finds support, the huge advance we’ve been seeing on stocks and commodities should take a break. This will be a PIVOTAL chart in the coming weeks and months.
DXY Weekly Chart:
Ok last one. These comparisons are just too cool! Here’s BTC charted against the S&P500. I believe those multi-year diagonal supports will be tested at some point. We’re not far off now!
BTC/SPY Weekly Chart:
Have a great weekend!
