Crypto & Stock Market Update
Is this bounce for real?
Good morning!
After weeks of boring activity for Bitcoin, it feels like we’re getting closer to some resolve, but does this bounce have any staying power? Let’s take a closer look.
We start with the weekly chart, where a bullish divergence has so far lead to a small bounce. The move is being fuelled by a weak US dollar, which we’ll take a look at shortly.
If bulls get continuation here, they may press toward 18-18.4k resistance in coming days. A rejection there could set up a weekly bear flag, in which continuation toward 14k ensues. A weekly close above 18.4 would present a case for bulls, who would then be targeting the last weekly lower high near 21.5k.
BTC Weekly Chart
S&P500
Now for a quick check on SPY, which is the S&P500 exchange traded fund. Last week we talked about the rejection from diagonal resistance, and this pullback is finding some support at the .25 retrace level. I remain neutral here unless it can reclaim 410, which could fuel a run to 430 or even 450 by EOY. The range likely stays tight ahead of FOMC next week.
SPY Daily Chart
Let’s jump down to the 4H on BTC, where BTC has so far rejected 17.3 resistance after rebounding from 16.7 diagonal and horizontal support. If bulls can push through this area, they’ll likely make a run at 18k. Key support of 16.7 must hold.
BTC 4H Chart
The dollar index continues its downtrend, with that HTF support area getting closer. That’s still the likely area for a bounce, which would put pressure on risk assets.
DXY Daily Chart
Bitcoin has gained some strength against stocks, but this formation on BTC vs. Nasdaq-100 looks like a bear flag. If 1.55 is reclaimed with a strong move above, that would be a significant flip in favour of the BTC bulls.
BTC/NAS100 12H Chart
Here’s a relatively new addition that has become one of my preferred charts for altcoin strength. There’s a nice clean channel forming with horizontal support just below. If this channel breaks to the upside, I’ll flip bullish on altcoins in the short term.
TOTAL2/BTC Chart
And last but not least! Bitcoin dominance has been holding support well here and may be gearing up for a HTF reversal. Failure to hold above 39 would invalidate that theory and potentially send it to all-time lows.
BTC.D Weekly Chart
Stay tuned for a huge FOMC week update! Coming soon…
